🎆 SPX Holiday Wrap: Gap-and-Go Stalls at Gamma Pin Ahead of Tariff Deadline

Happy 4th of July Weekend - SPX End of Day Wrap & Monday Outlook

Chart Above from USA Iran Strike Sat. night post June Q Opex thru close today July 03 (shaded area = Expected move X time frame)

Gap and Go that ran out of steam (or did the clock just run out)! SPX opened strong around 6250 on the NFP reaction, then delivered a beautiful gap-and-go rally through 11:30 AM, pushing toward highs around 6284-6285. But the end-of-day calm kicked in at the 1:00 PM holiday close - classic pre-holiday profit-taking and position squaring. Still managed to hold most gains and close up 0.83%.

The Technical Picture: The 5-minute action shows that perfect gap-and-go pattern from the NFP open through mid-morning, hitting resistance right where the yearly chart shows the ascending channel ceiling. The close at 6279 puts us right at a critical inflection point heading into the long weekend.

Monday July 7th Straddle: 6235/6325 (+/- 45 points) This becomes the key battleground. Thursday's close just above last week's straddle after that morning run from the NFP gap shows underlying strength. Monday's straddle boundaries:

• Above 6325: Breakout mode through yearly resistance

• Below 6235: Back toward today's NFP gap level

What's Really Driving This Market: The July 9th tariff deadline looms large. The administration keeps talking about "100 deals" while the deadline approaches. Thursday's gap-and-go action on the NFP print, despite being a half day, shows the market wants to be positioned for positive tariff resolution.

Cross-Asset Strength:

• RSP (185.18): Equal-weight holding well vs SPX - healthy broad internals

• QQQ (555.79): Tech above key 555 level, 558+ breakout target

• IWM (222.77): Small caps above 222 support, 224+ for leadership signal

Monday's Gamma Structure: Significant gamma concentration in the 6200-6300 range with heavy clustering around current levels creates a gamma pin environment for Monday:

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