SPX Daily Plan – Thursday, July 16

Mopex, post Powell Panic the road ahead

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SPX Daily Plan – Thursday, July 16

Powell panic, trial balloons, tariffs & the quiet before Friday's storm?

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Futures are green to flat this morning, mostly off a TSM beat. But don't let the quiet data schedule fool you — the market's still chewing on yesterday's drama.

Tuesday's CPI pop tapped 6302 (yes, that 6300) before pulling back to 6250. We opened there Wednesday — and then at 11AM, the “Trump to fire Powell” rumor dropped.

Things escalated quickly:
→ Lost 6250
→ 6240 MM short gamma = instant magnet
→ Cracked that → flushed straight to 6200
→ Then a V-bounce on the denial — Trump claimed it was all fake.

We closed at 6258, right back in the 6265–75 chop zone.
SPX at 7AM = ~6260, basically flat.

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🗓️ Events & Earnings – Thursday, July 17

8:30 AM ET –
• Retail Sales
• Jobless Claims
• Import Prices
• Philly Fed

Earnings:
• TSM (beat)
• ABT, DHI, JNJ, CFG, USB

Other:
• Last day to trade large SPX AM expiry
• QYLD buyback window: ~11AM–2PM (watch BTC DITMs / STO ATM Aug NDX)

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⚙️ Levels & Lines

Expected Moves:
• Fri straddle (from last Fri): 6170–6350
• New straddle for Fri: ±47 → 6200–6310
• 0DTE EM: ±27 → 6230–6285/90

Gamma Clusters & MM Zones:
• MM short gamma: 6240 and 6270
• Other watch levels: 6200, 6220, 6250, 6285, 6290–6310, 6325

Volatility Rundown:
• VIX: popped from sub-15 to 19.5, closed <17
• VVIX: spiked to 103, settled ~95
• Skew/vol got bid into weakness — helped the late-day reversal

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Yesterday: Powell firing rumors → denial → DXY whipsaw → trial balloon vibes. Credibility still the market's #1 problem. Bonds + equities flushed, metals bid. If it did happen, expect initial equity puke → rip. Fed independence risk = long-end fragility → YCC whispers.

Also… macro ain't dead. Keep Japan bond yields in focus.
Trump’s now floating 10–15% tariffs on 150+ countries (was 15–20%). Classic “walk it down” strategy.
Dollar still just under its 50-day MA — resistance all year. Bonds flat.

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$SPX Road Map 0DTE:

CHOP ZONE: 6235/40 – 6270/75
(Ping-pong zone, anchored by MM short gamma brackets)