SPX Daily Plan – Monday, July 14 Tariffs, CPI, Earnings, VIXpiration, and OPEX – All in One Week? Buckle Up.

Vol priced for a nap, headlines loaded like a bazooka. CPI, earnings, tariffs, VIX games — pick your poison.

SPX Daily Plan – Monday, July 14
(Is it tariffs, econ numbers, earnings kickoff, VIX, or OPEX that rules the roost this week? Or maybe it's all of the above / none of the above? Get yer popcorn.)

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CONTEXT

It’s the kind of week where even the macro tourists at CNBC might accidentally trip over a real catalyst. We’ve got inflation prints, bank earnings, tariff bombs, VIXpiration, and OPEX all crammed into five sessions — and yet SPX is still priced like nothing matters.

$SPX closed Friday around 6260, about 30 pts off the intraday ATH of 6290 on July 3. We saw a mechanical post-close pullback of ~20 pts — another textbook algo unwind.

Sunday overnight session bottomed near 6220, a level that’s acted as a gamma pivot. Last Monday’s breakdown to 6200 saw a fast reclaim — and we flagged 6220–6235 as key in Open Mic. That’s the battlefield again today.

The driver? Trump tariff headlines. Again. Overnight selling, RTH buying. Rinse, repeat.

Next key zone: round number 6200, with SPX ~6240 as of 6:00 AM.

Vol continues to ignore reality. Realized vol has collapsed into single digits even as macro and geopolitical risk stacks. Weekly expected move = 86 points.

0DTE EM = ±27 → 6210–6255/60 — which is essentially flat to Friday's close. Compression continues… for now.

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📆 Macro Triggers This Week

Why it matters: These could shake loose dealer flows, vol, or both.

• Tuesday – July 15
  • 8:30 AM – CPI (June)
  • 8:30 AM – Empire State Manufacturing Survey
  • FedSpeak: Bowman (9:15 AM), Barr (12:45 PM), Collins (2:45 PM), Logan (6:45 PM)

• Wednesday – July 16
  • 8:30 AM – PPI (June)
  • 9:00 AM – VIX Settlement (SOQ)
  • 9:15 AM – Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
  • 2:00 PM – Fed Beige Book
  • FedSpeak: Barr (10:00 AM), Williams (6:30 PM)

• Thursday – July 17
  • 8:30 AM – Retail Sales (June)
  • 8:30 AM – Jobless Claims
  • 8:30 AM – Import Prices
  • 8:30 AM – Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey

• Friday – July 18
  • Monthly OPEX – watch dealer gamma/hedge unwind behavior

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📈 Q2 Earnings Kickoff

• Tuesday: $JPM $C $WFC $BLK
• Wednesday: $BAC $GS $MS $JNJ $UAL $ASML
• Thursday: $NFLX $TSM $PEP
• Friday: $MMM $AXP $SCHW $SLB

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KEY LEVELS & STRUCTURE

• 6180 / 6200 – Round number zone + recent low + OI levels

• 6220 / 6235 – Gamma cluster / battle zone

• 6250 / 6255 / 6270 – Overnight gap fill, round #, MM + GEX

• 6275 – Recent battle zone / upside magnet

• 6300 – MM / GEX wall

• 6310 / 6330 / 6350 – OPEX week areas of interest

Friday’s OPEX Straddle: 6170 / 6350
0DTE EM: ±27 → 6210–6255/60
CPI Tuesday EM: ±50 → 6190–6290

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