SPX Daily Plan – Monday, July 14 Tariffs, CPI, Earnings, VIXpiration, and OPEX – All in One Week? Buckle Up.
Vol priced for a nap, headlines loaded like a bazooka. CPI, earnings, tariffs, VIX games — pick your poison.
SPX Daily Plan – Monday, July 14
(Is it tariffs, econ numbers, earnings kickoff, VIX, or OPEX that rules the roost this week? Or maybe it's all of the above / none of the above? Get yer popcorn.)
CONTEXT
It’s the kind of week where even the macro tourists at CNBC might accidentally trip over a real catalyst. We’ve got inflation prints, bank earnings, tariff bombs, VIXpiration, and OPEX all crammed into five sessions — and yet SPX is still priced like nothing matters.
$SPX closed Friday around 6260, about 30 pts off the intraday ATH of 6290 on July 3. We saw a mechanical post-close pullback of ~20 pts — another textbook algo unwind.
Sunday overnight session bottomed near 6220, a level that’s acted as a gamma pivot. Last Monday’s breakdown to 6200 saw a fast reclaim — and we flagged 6220–6235 as key in Open Mic. That’s the battlefield again today.
The driver? Trump tariff headlines. Again. Overnight selling, RTH buying. Rinse, repeat.
Next key zone: round number 6200, with SPX ~6240 as of 6:00 AM.
Vol continues to ignore reality. Realized vol has collapsed into single digits even as macro and geopolitical risk stacks. Weekly expected move = 86 points.
0DTE EM = ±27 → 6210–6255/60 — which is essentially flat to Friday's close. Compression continues… for now.
📆 Macro Triggers This Week
Why it matters: These could shake loose dealer flows, vol, or both.
Tuesday – July 15
• 8:30 AM – CPI (June)
• 8:30 AM – Empire State Manufacturing Survey
• FedSpeak: Bowman (9:15 AM), Barr (12:45 PM), Collins (2:45 PM), Logan (6:45 PM)Wednesday – July 16
• 8:30 AM – PPI (June)
• 9:00 AM – VIX Settlement (SOQ)
• 9:15 AM – Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
• 2:00 PM – Fed Beige Book
• FedSpeak: Barr (10:00 AM), Williams (6:30 PM)Thursday – July 17
• 8:30 AM – Retail Sales (June)
• 8:30 AM – Jobless Claims
• 8:30 AM – Import Prices
• 8:30 AM – Philly Fed Manufacturing SurveyFriday – July 18
• Monthly OPEX – watch dealer gamma/hedge unwind behavior
📈 Q2 Earnings Kickoff
• Tuesday: $JPM $C $WFC $BLK
• Wednesday: $BAC $GS $MS $JNJ $UAL $ASML
• Thursday: $NFLX $TSM $PEP
• Friday: $MMM $AXP $SCHW $SLB
KEY LEVELS & STRUCTURE
6180 / 6200 – Round number zone + recent low + OI levels
6220 / 6235 – Gamma cluster / battle zone
6250 / 6255 / 6270 – Overnight gap fill, round #, MM + GEX
6275 – Recent battle zone / upside magnet
6300 – MM / GEX wall
6310 / 6330 / 6350 – OPEX week areas of interest
Friday’s OPEX Straddle: 6170 / 6350
0DTE EM: ±27 → 6210–6255/60
CPI Tuesday EM: ±50 → 6190–6290
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