SPX & QQQ Hit New Highs – MOPEX, QYLD, and Gamma Flows Set the Trap

Rate cut odds rise, vol crushed, and dealer hedging games in full swing

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SPX Daily Plan – Friday, July 18

(New all-time highs for SPX and QQQ, MOPEX in play—where do we go from here?)

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CONTEXT

SPX and QQQ both closed at or near new all-time highs Thursday. SPX tagged 6300 before fading slightly, with clear signs of mechanical support into the close—dealer hedging and OI flows in full effect.

Fed Governor Waller released a dovish paper arguing for a July rate cut:

“The Fed shouldn't delay action until the labor market shows significant strain.”

This injects a dovish tilt into today’s session.

MOPEX in play — AM expiration settled early, while PM expirations (single stocks + ETFs) take the wheel intraday. That’s dealer gamma shifting beneath your feet.

NFLX earnings after the bell Thursday → watch for cross-asset bleed into QQQ and NDX.
QYLD Roll (Part 2) today:
• Bought back ITM calls Thursday
• Begins selling ATM Aug calls ~11:30 AM ET today
• QYLD roll adds short delta pressure via ATM call selling, increasing dealer hedging needs
• VWAP targeting based on 11:00 AM print—watch EX for exact timing

VIX expiration (Wed) helped crush vol all week. VIX remains under the key 17.00 pivot = unclenched tape… but fragile.

McMillan's MVB signal: triggered

“Bullish, but overbought. A tactical sell signal is in.”
Aligns with seasonal fade narrative into late July/August.

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EVENTS & EARNINGS – Friday, July 18

Macro (ET):
• 8:30 AM – Housing Starts
• 8:30 AM – Building Permits
• 10:00 AM – U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment
• 10:00 AM – U. Michigan Inflation Expectations
• Fed tone dominates

Earnings: MMM, AXP, SCHW, SLB
Flows: MOPEX (AM + PM), QYLD roll (ATM call selling begins ~11:30 AM)

KEY LEVELS & STRUCTURE

📊 Expected Move (0DTE): ±26–27pts (rounding to ±30)
📍 Spot Reference: ~6260 at 5:20 AM

Main Zones:

• 6250 – Core magnet

• 6260–6270 – Ping-pong zone

• 6285 – Pivot zone

• 6280–6300 – Stall zone

• 6310–6325 – Shock absorber

• 6350 – Major resistance / GEX wall

• 6375 – Extension resistance

• 6400+ – Call wall zone

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