Corrected SPX
Mia Culpa
🎯 SPX Daily Plan - Tuesday, July 15 (CPI Day) - FULLY CORRECTED
"Jack be nimble, Jack be quick" ⚡
🙏 MIA CULPA - CORRECTED LEVELS
CORRECTION: Initial chop zone was wrong. Actual data shows:
Current spot ~6290 (not 6295ish)
Key resistance at 6320ish (level to clear)
Major call wall at 6350ish
Support structure weaker until 6230ish
Roadmap significantly updated with correct dealer positioning
🌍 OVERNIGHT SETUP
SPX +25ish points (+0.4%) on NVDA China chip news + post-CPI momentum
Current: ~6290ish | Battle Lines: 6320ish resistance vs 6230ish support
Gamma Environment: Low to negative near spot → amplified moves both ways
🎭 DOUBLE CATALYST DAY (CPI + BANK EARNINGS)
8:30 AM CPI (June) → Largest expected move of the week ✅ DONE - BULLISH
Bank Earnings: $JPM $C $WFC $BLK → Sector rotation catalyst
Fed Parade: Bowman (9:15), Barr (12:45), Collins (2:45), Logan (6:45)
VIX Critical Zone: Currently 17ish → BURIED UNDER PUTS
Key Unclench: 16-17 breakdown OR expansion above 17 determines flow
This WAS a SNOW DAY → CPI delivered, now positioning for continuation
📅 WEEKLY CONTEXT - WHY TODAY STILL MATTERS
Tuesday: CPI ✅ + Bank earnings → Continuation or reversal?
Wednesday: VIX Settlement (SOQ) → Major dealer flow event
Thursday: Retail Sales + more earnings (NFLX/TSM)
Friday: Monthly OPEX → Dealer gamma/hedge unwind behavior
The Week's Arc: CPI bullish start → VIX settlement → OPEX finale
📏 LEVELS AND LINES
Expected Move Context
Friday Straddle: Was 6190/6350 → Today's EM: ±70ish (6220/6360)
0DTE Expected Move: ±50ish → Range: 6240/6340
Overnight Range: 6260-6300ish (SPX equivalent)
Corrected Key Levels
Current Spot (~6290) = Low/negative gamma environment
6320 = "Level to clear" → Key test above spot
6350 = Substantial customer short calls → Major resistance wall
6230 = First meaningful support
6200-6205 = Large customer long puts → Strong negative gamma node
6180/6150/6125 = Stacked put support zones
🎯 CRITICAL LEVELS & POSITIONING
⚖️ INSIDE THE CHOP ZONE
6265-6315ish → Current rotation range post-CPI
6290 = Current spot, low gamma = acceleration risk
6300 = Mild resistance cluster
6310 = Charm flow becomes supportive above here
Behavior: Light resistance until 6320ish breakthrough
🔺 BULLISH BREAKOUT (Above 6320ish)
6320 → Key "level to clear" → Breakthrough = momentum
6325 → Gamma flip zone (positive to negative)
6330 → Clean air, algorithmic chase likely
6350 → Major customer short call wall → Strong resistance
6380 → Secondary call resistance zone
🔻 BEARISH BREAKDOWN (Below 6265ish)
6260/6270/6280 → Mild support clusters, likely weak
6230 → First meaningful support test
6200-6205 → Strong negative gamma node (customer long puts)
6190 → Gamma flip zone (negative to positive)
6180/6150/6125 → Stacked put support → Strong bounce zones
🔄 TRADING WITHIN THE CHOP ZONE (6265-6315ish)
⬆️ IF Bounce from 6270-6280ish
→ THEN target 6290-6295 (current area)
→ THEN if holds, push toward 6300-6310
→ THEN 6310 acceptance = test 6320 "level to clear"
⬇️ IF Rejection at 6300-6310
→ THEN fade back to 6285-6290
→ THEN break of 6280 = test 6270ish
→ THEN 6265 failure = breakdown toward 6230ish
🎯 IF Test 6315-6320 Resistance
→ THEN watch for acceptance vs. rejection
→ THEN rejection = fade to 6300-6305
→ THEN acceptance = breakout acceleration to 6350ish
🔄 POST-CPI SCENARIOS
📈 CPI Cool ✅ + Banks Beat (CONTINUATION)
→ THEN push through 6320 "level to clear"
→ THEN VIX crush toward 15ish (put unwind accelerates)
→ THEN target 6350ish major call wall
→ THEN financials lead broader rally into earnings season
📉 Banks Disappoint (REVERSAL)
→ THEN fade from 6300-6310 area
→ THEN VIX expansion back above 17ish
→ THEN test 6230 then 6200-6205 support zones
→ THEN earnings season caution spreads
😵💫 Banks Mixed (CHOP CONTINUES)
→ THEN remain in 6265-6315ish rotation
→ THEN VIX stays trapped at 17ish
→ THEN stock-specific reactions dominate
→ THEN wait for Wednesday VIX settlement direction
⏰ ENHANCED TIME-BASED STRATEGY
PRE-MARKET/EARLY (7:00-9:30)
CPI reaction complete - bullish momentum established
Watch 6290-6300 area for consolidation vs. continuation
Bank earnings overlay begins
OPENING BELL (9:30-10:00)
Highest vol/opportunity window
6320 test likely - breakthrough = acceleration
MM positioning adjustments to overnight gaps
MID-MORNING (10:00-11:00)
Post-opening positioning settles
Fed speaker Bowman (9:15) + Barr (12:45) potential catalysts
Bank earnings reactions mature
LUNCH LULL (11:00-13:00)
Typically lower volume, range-bound
If above 6320, expect drift toward 6350ish
If below 6290, expect test of 6270-6280
AFTERNOON (13:00-15:00)
Fed speakers Collins (2:45) + Logan (6:45)
0DTE expiry effects intensify
Pin risk at 6290ish (straddle center) or breakthrough levels
FINAL HOUR (15:00-16:00)
Maximum 0DTE pin/unpin chaos
Watch for pin at 6290, 6320, or 6350 depending on session flow
VIX settlement positioning for tomorrow
⚠️ ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATIONS
2-Way Hedging Risk Alert
Wednesday: VIX Settlement (SOQ) → Dealer position adjustments
Wednesday: PPI (June) → Secondary inflation data
Friday: Monthly OPEX → Major gamma/hedge unwinds
Risk: Complex positioning around 6290 straddle center creates potential for false breaks and whipsaws as dealers hedge both directions into major events.
🚨 RISK MANAGEMENT
Post-CPI momentum - Follow the flow but respect key levels
6320 "level to clear" - Critical breakthrough point
Light resistance until 6320 - Don't overstay shorts
6350 major wall - Expect fierce resistance at customer short calls
Support weak until 6230 - Breaks below 6270 can accelerate 6260/50
VIX 17 = Put Prison - Watch for 15 breakdown or 18+ expansion
Wednesday VIX Settlement - Today's close impacts tomorrow's flows
Friday OPEX - Weekly gamma unwind building
💡 KEY INSIGHT
CPI delivered bullish surprise, but 6320 is the "level to clear" for sustained upside. Current spot at 6290ish sits in light resistance zone until that breakthrough. 6350 represents major customer short call wall - expect strong resistance. Downside support weak until 6230ish, then strengthens significantly at 6200-6205 customer long puts. 6250/60 ‘should hold’ level
"CPI cleared, 6320 to clear, 6350 to beware" 🎯
$SPX: resistance, 6125, support, 6150, support, 6180, strong support, 6200, support, 6205, key support, 6230, chop floor, 6265, secondary support, 6270, secondary support, 6280, straddle center, 6290, minor resistance, 6300, upper shelf, 6310, chop top, 6315, level to clear, 6320, magnet pin, 6350
Thanks for the update Doc!